Food security expert Dr. Fadel ElZubi affirmed that olive oil constitutes a fundamental pillar of Jordan’s food security and agricultural economy, noting that the most recent season revealed an unprecedented production crisis resulting from accumulated sectoral management challenges in addition to the impacts of climate change.

He explained that early estimates, based on modern technologies, projected that production would not exceed approximately 16,000 tins of olive oil—a figure that was indeed realized at the end of the season. This reflects the accuracy of advanced forecasting tools and underscores the importance of relying on them to make early decisions that can help mitigate market disruptions.

He pointed out that imported olive oil quantities did not exceed 1,500 tons until recently, compared to an estimated supply gap ranging between 8,000 and 10,000 tons. He noted that delays in imports and rising shipping costs contributed to increased pressure on the market, although the crisis is expected to ease with the arrival of new shipments in the coming period.

ElZubi indicated that the decline in production is primarily attributed to the phenomenon of alternate bearing in olive trees, in addition to climate change effects that have influenced the distribution and volume of rainfall. Meanwhile, the governorates of Irbid and Ajloun maintained relatively better production levels due to supplementary irrigation and farmers’ expertise.

He anticipated a rise in local olive oil prices, emphasizing that mitigating the repercussions of the crisis requires strengthening strategic reserves, accelerating imports, supporting farmers, and expanding supplementary irrigation—particularly given that around 70% of Jordan’s olive trees rely on rain-fed agriculture. He also stressed the importance of introducing modern harvesting technologies to reduce production losses.