Amman – The Strait of Hormuz is not merely an oil passage; it is the lifeline of global fertilizers. Without fertilizers, there is no food. This simple truth conceals a complex equation that governs food production for half of the world’s population.
Qatari liquefied natural gas, which crosses the strait daily, is the primary raw material for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers that feed millions across all continents. Any halt in the flow of Qatari gas would gradually shut down fertilizer plants in Asia and Europe, disrupting agricultural production during critical seasons and triggering sharp increases in global food prices.
A Compound Crisis
Today, the region faces an unprecedented compound crisis: a severe shock in fertilizer supply, record-high energy prices, and logistical paralysis hitting maritime supply chains—all coinciding disastrously with the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, when farmers in Europe, China, India, and North America prepare their lands. Any delay in fertilizer deliveries means delayed planting, which translates into the loss of an entire season and potential famine in food-import-dependent regions.
FAO estimates that a 20% reduction in fertilizer availability leads to a 10% drop in global agricultural output—enough to cause widespread market disruption. The current crisis is more severe than the fertilizer shock of 2022 caused by the Russia–Ukraine war. Researchers at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace confirm that today’s crisis is more complex and intense, posing a direct threat to global food security that could last for years. Fertilizer shipments are often the easiest casualty in maritime crises, as priority is given to oil and gas tankers over less profitable fertilizer vessels.
Even more alarming, G7 countries do not maintain strategic reserves of fertilizers as they do for oil. While the U.S. and Europe hold oil reserves sufficient for several months, there are no strategic silos for fertilizers, ammonia, or LNG dedicated to agriculture. This means any sudden disruption immediately impacts farms and fields without a safety net. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, restarting fertilizer production and transport could take weeks—precious weeks that Northern Hemisphere farmers cannot afford to lose.
Implications for Jordan
For Jordan, the repercussions are direct and clear. Although Jordan does not import large volumes of Qatari gas, global fertilizer prices will skyrocket. The country relies on fertilizer imports to sustain its agricultural sector, which covers more than 60% of local needs by weight, while domestic food production meets over 50% of market demand.
Jordan’s strategic reserves are relatively strong: wheat stocks exceed 12 months, barley 10 months, while oils, pulses, and sugar cover 3–4 months—an acceptable figure compared to global standards of 3–6 months. Self-sufficiency is high in dairy, poultry, and eggs, and fruit production meets over three-quarters of local demand. These figures reflect the resilience of Jordan’s food system. According to the Department of Statistics, undernourishment rates remain below 10%—lower than the global average—and food waste per capita is about 80 kg annually, compared to 100 kg globally (UNEP estimates).
A Difficult Equation for Agriculture
Jordan’s agricultural sector faces a tough equation: local food demand continues to rise, while production costs could jump 30–40% if the crisis persists. The government may need to increase fertilizer subsidies or seek alternative imports from Egypt and the Gulf, though options are limited amid a global crisis. The Arab region is among the hardest hit, as most countries import over 50% of their food, meaning global price hikes directly affect local consumers.
The war in Gaza and tensions in the Red Sea have already raised shipping and insurance costs. Adding a fertilizer crisis could trigger a new inflationary wave in food prices.
The Lesson
The key lesson from this compound crisis is that food security is no longer a local or regional issue—it is tied to the security of global maritime routes. The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil or gas corridor; it is a vital artery supplying the fertilizers that produce food. Threats to this passage are direct threats to humanity’s ability to feed itself.
Jordan, like other food-importing nations, will pay a heavy price if the crisis is not contained quickly and if Arab governments fail to prepare emergency plans for disruptions lasting weeks or months.
Ultimately, fertilizers are food before food reaches the plate. Without fertilizers, the land cannot produce. Without stability in the Strait of Hormuz, fertilizers cannot reach their destinations. This is a difficult equation—but recognizing it is the first step toward addressing it seriously and proactively.