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ElZubi for Al Jazeera and a reading into the Global Report on Food Crises

ElZubi for Al Jazeera and a reading into the Global Report on Food Crises

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1. Global Economic Notes Relevant to Arab States

  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Escalating conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted global trade routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, directly impacting energy and fertilizer markets.
  • Market Volatility: As the Arab region is a major energy supplier, instability creates spillover risks into global agricultural food markets, raising production and shipping costs worldwide.
  • Decline in Humanitarian Financing: Global funding for food sectors has dropped to levels not seen since 2016–2017, limiting the ability of fragile Arab states to absorb shocks.

2. Key Findings for the Arab Region

  • Worsening Food Insecurity: The Middle East and North Africa remain hotspots, with conflicts and economic shocks driving “critical” levels of hunger.
  • Displacement Crisis: The region hosts a significant share of the world’s 85.1 million forcibly displaced people, the group most vulnerable to acute food insecurity.
  • Strategic Role of Fertilizers: Instability in Arab fertilizer-exporting countries threatens global agricultural productivity, as alternative suppliers cannot currently fill the gap.

3. Country-Specific Insights

  • Sudan and Gaza (Palestine):
    • Famine Confirmation: For the first time since IPC reporting began, famine (Phase 5) has been confirmed simultaneously in parts of Sudan and Gaza.
    • 2026 Outlook: Famine risks are expected to persist throughout 2026.
  • Yemen: Classified among the world’s largest food crises in both absolute and relative terms.
  • Syria: Continues to face high levels of food insecurity, despite a slight decline in the percentage of affected population.
  • Refugees in Neighboring States: Acute food insecurity among refugees reached:
    • Egypt: 75%
    • Jordan: 74%
    • Iraq: 63%

4. Core Figures and Statistics

  • 1.4 million people: In “Catastrophe” (Phase 5) globally — nine times higher than in 2016, concentrated in Gaza and Sudan.
  • 39 million people: In “Emergency” (Phase 4) across 32 countries, including major Arab states.
  • 9.2 million women: Pregnant and breastfeeding women suffering acute malnutrition in 21 countries, including Arab crisis zones.
  • 30% decline in data collection: Severe reduction in monitoring activities (e.g., WFP data) due to funding shortages, leading to “information drought” in places like Algeria (regarding displaced populations).

5. Risks, Opportunities, and Strategic Notes

  • Risks:
    • Market Contagion: Continued conflict in the region poses direct risks of collapse in global agricultural and food markets.
    • Data Integrity: Funding gaps threaten data accuracy, risking flawed economic and humanitarian decisions.
  • Opportunities and Strategic Shifts:
    • Peace as Economic Catalyst: Evidence from Gaza (October 2025 peace plans) showed immediate improvements in aid access and trade flows, despite fragile security.
    • Building Resilience: The report recommends shifting from emergency relief to sustainable investment in food systems capable of functioning even amid conflict.

6. Final Analytical Summary

The Arab region currently represents the epicenter of global food crises.
The simultaneous occurrence of famine in Sudan and Gaza marks a historic failure of regional stability.

Economically, the region faces a paradox: it is both a major exporter of energy and fertilizers and a massive importer of food, leaving it trapped in a “vicious cycle.” Conflicts raise global energy prices, which in turn increase the food import bill for poorer Arab states.

This situation demands urgent action from Arab governments to:

  • Strengthen intra-regional trade
  • Secure supply chains
  • Prepare for declining international support expected in 2026.

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