Amman – An analytical report issued by the Geneva Center for Studies and Research, prepared by international food security expert Dr. ELZUBI, stressed that the world is not merely facing a transient rise in commodity prices, but is experiencing the early signs of a dangerous structural transformation in what he termed “the geopolitics of food.”
Dr. ELZUBI said the world is effectively standing on the edge of a “protein cliff,” noting that wheat prices reaching their highest levels in two years, alongside the continued gains in corn, are no longer just figures on global trading screens, but rather a serious indicator of the erosion of strategic reserves. This comes amid a deadly intersection of extreme climate change, geopolitical disruptions in global food supply chains such as the Black Sea and South America, and an input crisis driven by soaring energy prices.
He explained that three main factors are converging to create this “perfect storm”:
- Renewed geopolitical risks: Rising tensions in the Black Sea have increased the “risk premium,” warning that any threat to Ukrainian or Russian ports and export corridors would immediately remove millions of tons of high-protein wheat from the global market.
- Climate disruptions linked to the “La Niña” phenomenon, which hit major production areas in the U.S. and Brazil with unprecedented droughts, while flooding Western Europe’s crops with unseasonal heavy rains.
- The energy–food nexus: The surge in natural gas prices has raised the cost of producing nitrogen fertilizers, forcing farmers into a vicious cycle of either raising prices or reducing planted areas—ultimately leaving consumers to bear the cost.
On the map of food vulnerability, Dr. ELZUBI warned that the damage is uneven. While advanced economies can absorb shocks through financial support, developing countries face existential dilemmas. He detailed that North African and Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon import more than half of their wheat needs, straining subsidy budgets and threatening social stability. Meanwhile, Sub-Saharan African nations suffer from weak currencies against the dollar, creating “imported inflation” beyond household capacity. Countries with high population density and low self-sufficiency, such as Bangladesh and Vietnam, see basic food consuming the largest share of household income.
Dr. ELZUBI also highlighted a silent dilemma that goes beyond food quantity to strike at its very quality: fertilizers, which he described as the essential component of protein in wheat and corn. Farmers’ rationing of fertilizer use—due to price hikes exceeding 100%—has reduced productivity and global supply, while degrading quality. Wheat lacking sufficient fertilization loses its protein content, shifting from strategic bread wheat to low-value feed wheat.
He cautioned that relying on agriculture without replenishing soil nutrients will lead to long-term depletion, making recovery in future seasons harder and more costly.
The worst is yet to come. Dr. ELZUBI did not rule out that the peak of the crisis is still ahead, expecting it to emerge after the current harvest season. He attributed this to the depletion of strategic reserves in many countries, which had consumed their “safety cushions” over the past two years to absorb shocks, in addition to hidden burdens such as soaring maritime shipping and insurance costs in conflict zones. He also pointed to sovereign debt crises afflicting food-importing nations, weakening their ability to open letters of credit for new shipments.
The report outlined three scenarios for 2026–2027:
- Fragile stability (30%): Exports resume and energy prices ease slightly, creating relative calm but with continued inflationary pressures.
- Sustained disruption (50%): Persistently high prices and fertilizer shortages, potentially sparking social unrest in developing countries and straining political systems.
- Sharp contraction (20%): Crop failures in two major regions and supply chain breakdowns, triggering “geopolitical famines” and unprecedented mass migrations.
Concluding, Dr. ELZUBI emphasized that food has transformed from a mere commercial commodity into a geopolitical weapon and a pillar of national security, warning governments that losing sovereignty over seeds and fertilizers leaves them hostage to external volatility. He reminded that bread price spikes have historically been the spark for uprisings, as seen in 2008 and 2011, stressing that the only viable path for developing nations is investing in smart agriculture, reducing reliance on imported chemicals by shifting to organic fertilizers and drought-resistant crops. He concluded that the world is entering an era of “expensive food” as a structural reality, warning that unless international action is taken to ensure fair fertilizer flows and support small farmers, the crisis will spill beyond markets to strike at the very core of political stability.