If the escalation continues for a prolonged period, the impact will be cumulative, particularly on developing countries with limited fiscal space. However, if the escalation is temporary, markets will most likely rebalance within a few weeks.

First, the Strait of Hormuz—through which around 20% of total global oil supplies pass—has become a focal point of tensions. This has prompted several tankers to avoid transiting the area for security reasons. Such rerouting increases transit times and affects energy availability in global markets, contributing to higher oil and gas prices worldwide.

In addition to energy, the maritime transport sector itself has experienced significant disruptions. Some major shipping lines have suspended transit through critical chokepoints, while others have canceled bookings or rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. This has extended voyage durations and increased maritime transport costs.

Air and land freight in the region have also faced partial disruptions due to airspace closures or restrictions in certain areas. As a result, air cargo capacity has declined, placing additional pressure on alternative transport routes.