Those who think of the Strait of Hormuz as merely an oil corridor are mistaken. It is, in truth, the lifeline of the world’s fertilizer supply — and without fertilizers, there is no food. Qatari gas in particular is the essential raw material for producing ammonia and nitrogen-based fertilizers that feed hundreds of millions of people around the globe. Any disruption to its flow is therefore a deferred disruption to global agricultural production. What makes this even more alarming is that we are not facing a single-dimensional crisis, but a compound storm in which a fertilizer supply shock, a sharp spike in energy prices, and widespread logistical paralysis converge at the most sensitive possible moment — the spring planting season across the Northern Hemisphere.

The problem is compounded further by the fact that fertilizers have never commanded the same priority as oil. A ship captain bold enough to transit Hormuz will choose an oil cargo over fertilizers every time, and any potential naval escort would share that preference. Meanwhile, G7 nations maintain no strategic reserves of fertilizers comparable to their oil stockpiles. Even if the Strait were to reopen tomorrow, the crisis would not end overnight — restarting fertilizer production and supply chains takes weeks that Northern Hemisphere farmers simply do not have. Researchers at the Carnegie Endowment go so far as to argue that what we are witnessing today is more severe than the fertilizer shock that followed the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, a shock that unsettled global markets for months on end.