Fadel ELZUBI, former head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) mission, warns that these investments remain tied to the decisions of host countries, which may redirect production to their local markets under exceptional circumstances. He cites examples where Sudan redirected production locally, Ethiopia imposed export restrictions on Qatari-owned farms, and the war in Ukraine rendered “Al-Dahra” investments hostage to sovereign decisions in Kyiv.
Herein lies the fundamental paradox: the threat to Gulf food security no longer manifests as empty shelves, but rather as “imported inflation” arriving through multiple channels—high shipping costs, energy prices, fertilizers (of which one-third of global trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz), and escalating maritime insurance premiums.
The FAO, in turn, places wheat, rice, vegetable oils, and fertilizers under what ELZUBI calls “Red Monitoring,” warning that most Gulf countries import between “90% to 100%” of their needs for these specific commodities.
On the domestic production front, vertical and hydroponic farming have begun entering the market with tangible figures; a single farm in Dubai supplies 900 tons annually, supplemented by similar projects in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. However, ELZUBI describes these as “supplements, not substitutes,” as they focus on leafy greens while grains and oils—the lifelines of food security—remain beyond their scope. The true value of these projects is strategic rather than productive; they prove that the Gulf can farm in a desert environment, but not at a scale that eliminates the need for imports.
What makes the Gulf’s food security challenges a story of partial success rather than a final victory is that the region has built genuine operational resilience—deep strategic reserves, bypass ports, and regional coordination through the GCC General Secretariat. However, it has not eliminated its structural vulnerabilities: heavy reliance on imports and fragile water security.
ELZUBI summarizes the next phase in one sentence: “Gulf logistical unity has become a mandate, and what was once deferred must be implemented immediately.” Until this mandate evolves into a shared food reservoir—similar to the joint Gulf pharmaceutical project—alongside unified collective purchasing and a rail network linking Arabian Sea ports to the heart of Gulf capitals, the Gulf will remain better prepared for shocks.