Every year, almost systematically, the holy month of Ramadan becomes a season to test the fragility of our agricultural system. This year was no exception, as tomato prices in some markets across the Kingdom exceeded 0.60 dinars per kilogram. For those closely following the sector, this was no surprise, yet it sparked a wave of official statements that sounded much like those of previous years.

Weather as a convenient excuse
Officials were quick to offer the usual explanations: cold temperatures, crop cycle transitions, and reduced supply. These are objective realities that cannot be denied—climatic conditions did affect production, and the seasonal gap between the southern and northern Jordan Valley is a well-known agricultural fact. But the deeper question remains: why do we rediscover this gap every year only after it occurs, rather than anticipating it? With today’s monitoring tools, these conditions are predictable. So why are they not factored into production planning in advance? The truth, well understood by those in the field, is that the problem lies not in the weather but in the absence of a production management system built on reliable data and strategic planning that precedes the crisis rather than follows it.

Farmers voting with their feet
The strongest evidence of the crisis does not come from central market figures but from farmers’ decisions themselves. A farmer who planted 100 tomato units last year planted only 10 this year—or none at all—due to mounting debts, lack of financing, and years of losses when markets were flooded with produce that failed to fetch fair prices. This shift is not a whim but a clear economic message from the weakest link in the value chain: farmers are exiting because survival is no longer viable. Rising costs of fertilizers, seeds, energy, transport, and labor have squeezed profit margins to the point of disappearance. Meanwhile, multiple layers of intermediaries between farm and consumer inflate final prices without benefiting the primary producer. This exposes a structural flaw in the value chain that has gone unaddressed for decades.

A retreating state without replacement
Since the 1990s, Jordan has steadily moved toward liberalizing the agricultural sector and privatizing its institutions—a policy with economic rationale. Yet the problem is that the state withdrew without providing adequate alternatives: no accessible agricultural financing to replace input subsidies, no marketing safety net to shield farmers from seasonal price collapses, and no information platform to connect producers with markets transparently and quickly. The result is a farmer left alone against a volatile market, losing when supply is abundant and unable to benefit when prices rise because intermediaries capture the gains.

Ramadan as a mirror, not a cause
The fluctuations in vegetable prices during Ramadan are not isolated seasonal phenomena but rather a mirror reflecting chronic structural weaknesses: poor strategic planning, fragile supply chains vulnerable to climatic or seasonal shocks, and marketing distortions that consistently leave farmers as the weakest party. With climate change trends continuing—and all indicators confirm this—the seasonal shortage of vegetables will recur and deepen in the coming years.

What is needed?
It is not enough to issue statements and reassure the public that prices will soon stabilize. What is required is a genuine restructuring of the system: investing in scientific research to develop crop varieties resilient to cold and heat waves, building a planning framework based on accurate data that translates into clear guidance for farmers on what to plant, where, and when. This must be complemented by activating contract farming between producers and institutional buyers, reducing intermediary layers, and strengthening agricultural financing as an investment in food security rather than a social handout.

As long as our agricultural “strategy” for Ramadan remains limited to waiting for crop cycles to shift and urging patience, tomatoes will continue to challenge us each season—and we will continue to offer the same excuses.