Fertilizer Disruptions: A Greater Threat than Oil Shocks

Report to the United Nations, the African Union, and the African Development Bank

The impact of fertilizer supply disruptions is more severe than oil shocks when it comes to food security and agricultural development in Africa—particularly in light of the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz (2026).

Global fertilizer supplies are facing acute disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 20–30% of global fertilizer trade passes (including urea and sulfur, essential for phosphate production). These disruptions surpass the impact of rising oil prices, as fertilizers are a direct input for agricultural production, whereas oil affects agriculture indirectly through logistics and energy costs.

In Africa, where 80–90% of fertilizers in Sub-Saharan countries are imported, and smallholder farmers already use very low application rates (less than 20 kg/hectare compared to the global average of 135 kg/hectare), any price increase leads to reduced usage. This directly results in lower yields and higher food prices. Reports from UNCTAD and warnings from FAO emphasize that fertilizer disruptions are directly linked to declining agricultural output, posing a greater threat to food security than energy shocks alone.