The former head of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization mission, Dr. Fadel ELZUBI, said that the war between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, has transformed into a perplexing crisis that struck the global food security system through a chain of interconnected economic and logistical effects. In an exclusive interview with the Jordan News electronic newspaper, he explained that the first round of impacts begins with disruptions to supply and delivery chains, where any disturbance in transport routes or sea corridors leads to an immediate rise in shipping and insurance costs, which directly affects food prices—not only due to the cost itself but also because of the reduced quantities available in global markets. ELZUBI noted that the crisis worsens at the level of agricultural production inputs, as the agricultural sector fundamentally relies on energy and fertilizers, especially urea, which has seen “crazy” price surges. He pointed out that a rise of about $100 in production inputs translates into an increase of nearly $30 in the cost of producing one dunam, driving food prices to unprecedented levels. He added that farmers now face two bitter choices: either continue using high-cost fertilizers, which means higher prices, or reduce their use, which leads to lower production, and in both cases the food crisis deepens.

ELZUBI indicated that the war in the Gulf region threatens to deprive global markets of a large portion of supplies, including about half of the world’s urea production, which would compound pressures on agricultural production in countries around the world. He added that the repercussions extend beyond production to humanitarian financing, where pressure on the global economy reduces donor countries’ ability to meet their commitments to international organizations, threatening relief programs, especially in the most vulnerable areas. ELZUBI also noted that conflicts contribute to worsening displacement crises, citing more than half a million displaced people in Lebanon as a result of the escalation—a figure likely to rise—placing direct pressure on food, health services, and infrastructure.

He added that the world has effectively entered a phase of direct impact as the war enters its third week, warning that the current priority must be to support household food security through urgent aid, bolster local production, and activate social safety nets. ELZUBI warned that local markets have become susceptible to rapid “boiling” situations, where rumors or expectations of supply interruptions drive price inflation beyond reality, denying broad segments access to food.

The most dangerous scenario, he said, is the expansion of hunger worldwide, predicting that about 45 million additional people could join the ranks of those food insecure in a short period, with varying increases across regions up to 10% in West and Central Africa, and 15% in East and Southern Africa and Asia. ELZUBI noted that oil prices rising from around $70 to nearly $100 per barrel (or more) have directly contributed to higher production and transportation costs, fueling inflationary pressures on food. He added that international actions, such as releasing about 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, though important, have limited impact since they do not address the root causes tied to disrupted supply chains and higher energy costs. ELZUBI further stated that food markets are inherently time-disbalanced: prices rise quickly during crises, but it takes a long time to return to normal levels, meaning the effects of this war will persist even after the military operations stop. He concluded that the world stands at a dangerous crossroads, as the crisis poses a direct threat to the ability of millions of people to survive within a fragile global food system that is highly sensitive to any geopolitical shock.