Jordan News – Dr. Fadel ELZUBI, former Head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization Mission, warned that the involvement of the Houthis in the Red Sea confrontations signals unprecedented complications in global supply chains, cautioning that any further escalation could lead to a real paralysis in the flow of supplies.

In a statement to Jordan News, ELZUBI explained that recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz have left deep negative impacts on global food security, with nearly 80 million additional people falling into hunger in a short period. He noted that disruptions in supply chains through Bab al‑Mandeb would further exacerbate the crisis, especially with rising insurance costs and freight charges, directly affecting global food prices and limiting access for those in need.

ELZUBI pointed out that past experiences, such as supply disruptions in the Black Sea, demonstrated how partial interruptions in specific commodities can drive global food prices upward. The current situation, however, involves comprehensive disruptions spanning energy, fertilizers, and transport. He stressed that the crisis is not only about rising prices but also about shortages in availability, particularly with fertilizer supplies being disrupted—an essential input for global agricultural production.

Preliminary estimates, he added, indicate a decline in global agricultural output by 10–15% due to fertilizer shortages and rising energy and transport costs, creating a dual pressure of higher prices and reduced quantities. Countries dependent on food imports will be most affected, given their limited capacity to absorb such economic shocks.

ELZUBI classified the Arab region into three categories: financially capable states such as the Gulf countries that can absorb the shock; conflict‑affected states where aid will decline; and import‑dependent states that will face major challenges in financing their needs.

He emphasized that possible solutions lie in strengthening strategic reserves, diversifying supply sources, expanding international cooperation, and improving storage capacities. Countries like Jordan, he noted, possess relatively strong food reserves—especially wheat—covering four to six months, in line with global standards, while other states face greater challenges. ELZUBI highlighted that Egypt, as the world’s largest wheat importer, may face significant pressures, particularly with rising fertilizer and energy costs, which could affect its food subsidy programs. He concluded that the most critical problem is the absence of a strategic reserve of fertilizers, which makes confronting the crisis more complex and places global food security under a severe test in the coming period.