@QBC TV – ELZUBI: 30% Decline in Global Fertilizer Trade

The 30% drop in global fertilizer trade does not show its impact immediately, because farmers first consume what they have in stock and rely on nutrients already accumulated in the soil. The gap only emerges in the following season, reflected in lower yields and reduced nutritional content of crops. This is why international organizations note that agriculture is the last sector to be affected and the slowest to recover.

The regions most at risk are those combining high dependence on imported fertilizers with limited financial capacity to absorb price increases: foremost Sub-Saharan Africa, where fertilizer use is already low and any further decline directly threatens food security; then South Asia, with its dense population and heavy reliance on government subsidies for fertilizers; followed by the Arab region, which imports most of its grain and production inputs alike, facing a double shock.

The conclusion is that the real danger is not fertilizer shortages per se, but their intersection with poverty and the inability to import. Wealthier countries will pay more and secure their needs, while fragile states will plant less and harvest less — and that is where the threat concentrates.