Drought and the Right to Food

International food security expert Dr. Fadel ELZUBI argues that the food security crisis in Kenya and Ethiopia cannot be reduced to the effects of drought alone. Rather, it reflects structural fragility accumulated over years, driven by the intersection of climate change, rapid population growth, weak agricultural systems, and declining humanitarian funding. Speaking to Sifr, ELZUBI stresses that drought is no longer a temporary seasonal phenomenon, but has become a permanent factor reshaping food security realities in the Horn of Africa, deepening the vulnerability of communities that rely primarily on farming and pastoralism.

This perspective aligns with the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 report, issued jointly by FAO, WFP, WHO, UNICEF, and IFAD, which noted that around 673 million people suffered hunger in 2024, with Africa accounting for more than 307 million chronically hungry people—many concentrated in the eastern part of the continent.

Agricultural Fragility Intensifies ELZUBI highlights Ethiopia as one of Africa’s most fragile food security hotspots, ranking 100th out of 123 countries on the 2025 Global Hunger Index, with a score of 24.4—placing it among nations facing a serious food situation. International estimates indicate that more than 10 million people face hunger or malnutrition, including about 3 million internally displaced persons, while 4.4 million children and pregnant or lactating women require urgent interventions to address malnutrition. With over 70% of Ethiopia’s workforce dependent on agriculture, any decline in production or crop loss directly impacts millions of rural households, exacerbating poverty and food insecurity.

Widening Food Gap Although Kenya’s economy is more diversified than Ethiopia’s, northern and northeastern regions continue to face alarming food insecurity due to heavy reliance on pastoralism and traditional farming. ELZUBI notes that about 2.8 million people required food assistance in 2025, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, while UNICEF projects that more than 810,000 children under five will need treatment for severe acute malnutrition in 2026. These indicators, he argues, show that economic improvements in certain sectors have not translated into resilience for the most vulnerable communities, which remain directly dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources.

Population Growth and the Right to Food ELZUBI recalls that the drought waves between 2020 and 2023—marked by four consecutive failed rainy seasons—were among the worst since the 1970s. According to UN OCHA data, these conditions led to the death of at least 9.5 million livestock across the region, including about 4 million in Ethiopia and 2.5 million in Kenya. Losses, he explains, extend beyond income, undermining the food security of pastoral households that rely on livestock as their main source of food and savings.

Adapting to Climate Change ELZUBI adds that rapid population growth is intensifying pressure on farmland and water resources, while soil fertility declines and desertification expands—making food security increasingly complex in the years ahead. He warns that current trends suggest Kenya and Ethiopia are not on track to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) by 2030. Improving food security, he concludes, requires a transformation in agricultural policy: investing in climate-smart agriculture, advancing irrigation and water harvesting systems, empowering rural women, expanding social protection networks, and strengthening community resilience to climate impacts.