Climatic supply shocks,

Logistical and geopolitical bottlenecks,

Policy and trade decisions,

Persistent uncertainty over export flows from geopolitically sensitive regions, accompanied by disruptions in logistics and shipping services,

Closure or disruption of maritime routes and strategic straits, with direct consequences for the supply and cost of production inputs,

Adverse weather conditions in major production areas, particularly prolonged heatwaves and droughts, undermining crop and yield expectations,

Cross‑regional climatic phenomena linked to global climate cycles (such as El Niño), affecting production forecasts across multiple regions simultaneously.