He added: “Actual withdrawals in 2023 reached nearly 699 million cubic meters—an excess of about 281 million above the safe limit. Put simply, each year we pump almost two‑thirds beyond the threshold, recording the difference as debt against future generations. This debt is not theoretical: groundwater levels have dropped by tens of meters in areas such as eastern Mafraq, Dhuleil, and Hallabat; well productivity has declined; salinity has risen in many cases due to intensive pumping. With every additional meter in depth, pumping costs rise and water quality falls, until a well reaches the point where it is no longer fit for drinking or irrigation.”
Dr. ELZUBI noted that the Ministry of Water has exerted genuine effort in pursuing violators. Since the launch of the water control campaign in 2013 until June of this year, authorities sealed and backfilled about 1,734 illegal wells and confiscated 160 drilling rigs. “Yet this effort, important as it is, addresses only the visible part of the problem. The real question is: how much of the 281‑million‑cubic‑meter excess comes from illegal wells, and how much from licensed wells pumping beyond their quotas in the absence of reliable meters and effective oversight? If the larger share is from the latter, then no matter how extensive the sealing campaigns, the equation will not change.”
He explained that agriculture in the highlands is a central player in this equation: “Part of the vegetables and fruit trees we export are irrigated with non‑renewable groundwater. In practice, this means we are exporting a strategic reserve at the price of a crop. The value we obtain from exports does not account for the cost of water that will never return.”
The paradox, he stressed, lies in the fact that cities and farms often draw from the same aquifers. “Every cubic meter extracted for irrigation in a shared basin is effectively deducted from the future drinking supply of nearby urban populations. Each drop in the water table raises the energy bill for pumping—borne by farmers and the state alike. The true cost of over‑pumping is distributed across society, while the benefit remains concentrated among a limited number of beneficiaries.”
Dr. ELZUBI emphasized that this does not mean shutting down farms, but rather redefining the role of groundwater as “a strategic reserve for drought years and emergencies, not an open source for daily consumption.”
He outlined four necessary steps:
- Install smart, electronically linked meters on all licensed agricultural wells, and publish extraction data by basin.
- Apply genuine progressive pricing for withdrawals exceeding licensed quotas.
- Establish a program to buy pumping rights or retire wells in the most depleted aquifers, with fair compensation and support for farmers to shift toward less water‑intensive crops or treated wastewater where feasible.
- Link any new agricultural license in the highlands to a water balance assessment of the basin from which it will draw.
Finally, he warned: “Groundwater is Jordan’s last line of defense in a country dependent on erratic rainfall and cross‑border sources. When a severe drought or regional crisis strikes, this reserve is what separates pressure from collapse. Its depletion today does not save money—it merely transfers the cost to a moment when we will be less able to pay.”