Climate Shifts Reshape Supply and Demand Balances, Altering Trade Routes

Climate change has become a decisive factor in restructuring global trade networks. Rising waves of droughts, floods, wildfires, and storms are exerting mounting pressure on supply chains and intensifying geopolitical competition over vital commodities.

Rising temperatures are redrawing the agricultural production map, gradually shifting fertile zones toward the poles. Logistics corridors are also being disrupted: declining water levels in channels such as the Panama Canal and several European rivers, the opening of Arctic sea routes amid accelerated ice melt, and the looming threat of ports facing sea-level rise.

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, food prices rose by 3.1% year-on-year in May, with food inflation potentially reaching double digits by 2027.