In this context, food security expert Dr. Fadel ELZUBI noted that it is fair to say the aggregate indicators have been encouraging. The sector recorded growth of 6.9% in 2024, then led national growth in 2025 with quarterly rates ranging between 6.3% and 8.1%, raising its contribution to GDP to about 5.4%, with added value approaching 2.26 billion dinars. Agricultural exports also reached a record high of more than 1.68 billion dinars, compared to about 900 million dinars in 2022, supported by government decisions to subsidize air and sea freight.
ELZUBI added: “The Agricultural Risk Management Fund was restructured, and the second executive program of the vision (2026–2029) was launched with a package of initiatives including water-saving technologies and a shared-economy company to organize agricultural labor. These are achievements that should not be underestimated in an economy searching for new growth drivers.”
He explained that the picture is not yet complete. The funding allocated to agriculture and food security in the second executive program amounts to about 64.5 million dinars from the budget for 2027–2029, which seems modest compared to the ambitious targets. This suggests that the real bet is on private investment, whose incentives remain unclear. Meanwhile, agricultural water infrastructure projects have been delayed at a time when the 2024/2025 rainy season was among the weakest in decades, and the annual water budget does not exceed one billion cubic meters, half of which goes to agriculture.
He added that the desired transformation in the agricultural labor system—comprising about 400,000 workers, including 60,000–65,000 foreign workers—has not yet materialized. Nor has self-sufficiency in wheat been raised beyond 3%, with imports still around 1.15 million tons annually. Although the strategic reserve remains reassuring at a level sufficient for ten months, measuring progress itself remains difficult: public periodic reports on sector initiatives are rare, and the absence of a declared monitoring system with quantitative indicators has made evaluation more a matter of judgment than systematic accountability.
ELZUBI stressed that self-review is necessary for all those involved in setting the sector’s targets, as the vision was built on three assumptions: that government funding would flow regularly, that institutional coordination would match the ambition of the initiatives, and that private investment would quickly respond to an improved business environment. Experience has proven the bet on exports and the comparative advantage of high-value fruits and vegetables to be correct, but revealed the first two assumptions to be overly optimistic. Overlapping institutional responsibilities and chronic budgetary pressures slowed implementation more than anticipated.
He continued: “Successive external shocks—from the war in Ukraine to supply chain disruptions, rising prices of fertilizers, feed, and energy, and climate change—have forcibly reordered priorities toward crisis management rather than structural transformation.”
ELZUBI emphasized that the vision remains a valid national framework, and the problem lies not in the direction but in the pace and consistency of progress. Four years mark an appropriate moment for mid-course review: to update priorities, strengthen governance, and link financing to results.
He proposed that decision-makers issue an annual public report measuring the performance of agricultural sector targets with quantitative indicators, noting that “what is not measured cannot be managed.” In parallel, he called for establishing a high-level food security coordination mechanism bringing together the ministries of agriculture, water, industry, and planning under one umbrella to resolve overlapping mandates.
He added: “It is also necessary to channel concessional financing through the Agricultural Credit Corporation and the Risk Management Fund toward water-saving technologies and protected agriculture, and to stimulate private investment with clear incentives in value chains and food processing rather than limiting efforts to primary production.”
He further urged linking any agricultural expansion to non-traditional water projects, foremost among them treated wastewater and water harvesting, while training national labor and organizing the agricultural labor market to make it more attractive to youth. Climate adaptation, he stressed, must be integrated into every agricultural initiative as a condition of viability, not a luxury.
ELZUBI concluded that the agricultural sector has proven over four years that it can be a genuine driver of growth when provided with will and resources. What is required today is not a new vision, but better fulfillment of the existing one.