In his interview with An‑Nahar, Dr. Fadel ELZUBI, food security expert and Director of the Geneva Center for Studies, said that FAO’s warnings reflect a fundamental shift in the concept of global food security, which is no longer tied solely to agricultural production but has become hostage to maritime corridors, supply chains, and geopolitical conflicts.

He explained that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely a passage for oil transport, but a “global food artery” through which large volumes of fertilizers and raw materials essential for agricultural production flow. Any disruption there could affect global food prices within just a few months.

ELZUBI stressed that the greatest danger in the current crisis lies not in the shortage of grains themselves, but in the rising cost of producing them. Nitrogen fertilizers are directly linked to natural gas prices, meaning that any increase in energy costs quickly translates into higher agricultural and food production expenses.

He added that global wheat stocks remain at relatively comfortable levels, estimated at around 271 million tons. The real challenge, however, is the ability to sustain production in upcoming seasons if fertilizer and input prices continue to rise. This could push farmers to reduce fertilizer use and cut back on future production.

According to ELZUBI, the repercussions of the crisis will not be confined to fragile states but may also extend to advanced economies. Rising costs of energy, fertilizers, and shipping feed directly into global grain and food prices regardless of national income levels, creating inflationary pressures even in major markets.

He noted that the current crisis differs from the food crisis that followed the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022. Today’s pressures stem primarily from higher production and logistics costs, not just supply shortages. He warned that if these conditions persist, the crisis could evolve from a temporary shock into a structural one, reshaping agricultural production and investment decisions worldwide.