International food security expert Dr. Fadel ELZUBI explained that the global food price index rose by 1.6% in April, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, reaching 130.7 points. However, it remains about 18% below the historic peak recorded in March 2022.
He added that what the world is witnessing today “is not a traditional agricultural crisis,” but rather a compound shock combining energy factors, geopolitics, and supply chain disruptions.
A non-temporary crisis Regarding the outlook for prices, ELZUBI noted that the world has not yet reached the severe scenario of 2022, but is approaching a stage of sustained food inflation, especially if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues for several more months.
He emphasized that the current rise is not linked to short-term circumstantial factors, but to structural ones, including higher energy costs, fertilizer shortages, climate volatility, and threats to international maritime routes. He added that any political easing or gradual reopening of sea lanes may help relieve market pressures, but will not return prices to 2024 levels.
Wheat likely to rise Analyzing the performance of food sectors, ELZUBI confirmed that vegetable oils recorded the highest increase, rising 5.9% in a single month to 193.9 points, driven by higher demand for biofuels and expectations of reduced palm oil production in Southeast Asia.
Meat prices also reached a new record of 129.4 points, with an annual increase of 6.4%, particularly red meat due to rising Chinese demand.
Cereal prices rose modestly by 0.8%, while declines in sugar and dairy prices helped ease part of the inflationary pressures.
ELZUBI predicted that the next quarter will see further increases in oil and meat prices, along with a possible rise in wheat prices if forecasts of a 2% global decline in planted areas are confirmed.
Prices and production abundance Explaining why prices continue to rise despite improved production of some crops, ELZUBI said that supply and demand rules have not collapsed, but have been “redefined” under the new variables.
He noted that global wheat production is estimated at about 817 million tons, higher than the five-year average, yet rising costs of energy, fertilizers, shipping, insurance, and geopolitical risks have kept prices elevated.
He added that post-harvest costs now account for more than 35% of the final price of imported food commodities in the Arab region, stressing that “today’s market does not price the product alone, but its entire journey from the field to the port and then to store shelves.”